Visa Delays and Policy Uncertainty Projected to Reduce Foreign Enrolment in the US

A new analysis from NAFSA and JB International has projected that ongoing disruptions in visa processing, along with new policy settings, will have a devastating effect on international student numbers in the United States for the coming year.

The analysis points to three major factors behind the projected decline in enrolment for 2026/27: reduced or diverted demand; process and policy around student visas; and policy uncertainty.

The projected decline in enrolment for 2026/27 could result in a reduction of up to 9.5% in overall foreign enrolment in the US, which could cost the US economy as much as US$3.4 billion and affect up to 39,000 jobs.

## Factors Behind the Projected Decline

The analysis points to several indicators of declining demand for study in the US this year. Recent findings from the Association of American Universities Data Exchange highlight that the international pool of doctoral candidates shrunk by -21% for 2026/27, a trend that led to an overall decline in international PhD admissions of -17%. Meanwhile, the Common App says that international applications filed via its college admissions platform are down -9% for the coming academic year.

The trends are no doubt influenced by a series of underlying issues around student visa processing. An expanded ban on travel to the US affecting citizens from 39 countries, including Nigeria, has been in place since 1 January 2026. While there has not been an outright pause on visa processing this year, the State Department's prioritisation of visa processing for FIFA World Cup ticket holders traveling to the US supplanted the historical norm of prioritising student applicants during the peak processing months over spring and summer. Making the situation even more challenging, there are widespread reports of significant processing delays and very limited visa interview availability in India, China, and Europe.

## The Need for Speed

NAFSA is urging the US administration to take swift action to ensure international student contributions continue to benefit American ingenuity, economic prosperity, and national security. The organisation is calling for the administration to prioritise processing for all F and M visa applicants as well as for those pursuing a J visa for exchange in the US, exempt students and exchange visitors from the current travel ban, and preserve Optional Practical Training for foreign graduates in the US.

| Factor | 2026/27 | | --- | --- | | Projected decline in overall foreign enrolment in the US | up to 9.5% | | Potential cost to the US economy | up to US$3.4 billion | | Potential number of jobs affected | up to 39,000 |