US Visa Changes Threaten College Revenues and International Student Numbers

## US Colleges Face Revenue Risks from Visa Changes Changes to US immigration policy may have significant financial implications for colleges and universities that rely heavily on international students. Fitch, a credit rating agency, has warned that the new policy could lead to decreased international student enrollment and revenue risks for some institutions. The changes, which take effect on September 15, 2026, will set fixed time limits on student and exchange visitor visas. This means that international students will need to file for an extension of stay with the government if their studies take longer than four years. Fitch has cautioned that this could lead to a significant decrease in international student enrollment, particularly for institutions with large graduate and STEM programs where degree completion often exceeds four years. ## Diversified Revenue Sources May Mitigate Financial Impact However, Fitch expects the financial effects of the changes to be felt unevenly, with institutions that have diversified revenue sources, broad demand, and sufficient financial resilience able to absorb moderate enrollment volatility. This means that institutions that rely heavily on international tuition revenue and have limited financial flexibility may be hardest hit. Travis Ulrich, Senior Vice President of Enterprise Solutions at Terra Dotta, has expressed concerns about the new policy, stating that it is unlikely to push a healthy institution into deficit, but may lead to mergers and program closures, particularly among small private schools with high international enrollment and regional public universities with large international master's cohorts. ## Financial Losses May Be Greater Than Estimated The US government's own analysis estimates that the new policy will cost at least $440 million annually, totaling $3.2 billion over the next decade. However, this estimate does not take into account lost tuition revenue due to declining international enrollment, which stakeholders say will make the financial losses far greater. NAFSA and JB International have estimated a 9.5% fall in total international students this fall, which would deprive the US economy of at least $3.4 billion in direct economic contributions just this year. This highlights the potential financial risks associated with the new policy and the need for institutions to diversify their revenue sources and improve their financial resilience. ## Bureaucratic Friction and Perceived Travel Barriers May Discourage Students The new policy has also been criticized for creating bureaucratic friction and perceived travel barriers, which may discourage students from coming to the US. Travis Ulrich has asked, "If you were a student, would you come to the US under these terms and conditions?" This highlights the potential long-term consequences of the new policy and the need for institutions to adapt to changing student preferences and needs. ## Sector-Wide Credit Impact May Remain Limited Fitch has warned that even modest revenue declines can weaken college margins, particularly for institutions with international student populations above 10% and those with large graduate and STEM programs. However, the agency expects the sector-wide credit impact to remain limited, as institutions with diversified revenue sources and sufficient financial resilience will be able to absorb moderate enrollment volatility. Overall, the new US visa policy has significant implications for colleges and universities that rely heavily on international students. While some institutions may be able to absorb the financial impact, others may face significant revenue risks and financial losses. The need for institutions to diversify their revenue sources, improve their financial resilience, and adapt to changing student preferences and needs has never been more pressing.