Australia forecasts 4% drop in new

Australia is projected to see a 4% decline in new international students beginning higher education studies in 2026. This follows four consecutive years of flat growth in student commencements, according to an analysis by sector data specialist Studymove.

Studymove managing director Keri Ramirez presented the findings in an August 2026 webinar. He linked the downturn to a combination of government policy changes, including adjustments to post-study work rights, English-language requirements, and escalating visa application fees. The analysis is based on commencement data from the first half of 2026 and current student visa trends.

Flat or negative growth for higher education

For four years, the number of new international students in Australian higher education has shown no growth. The forecast for 2026 turns that stagnation into an expected 4% decrease. Ramirez noted that while there is no formal cap system, the policy framework has effectively created a ceiling of about 210,000 new student commencements per year.

"It has been four years of basically no growth in commencements," Ramirez said. He argued that with the overall pool of students not expanding, institutions must now compete for market share from rivals rather than expect a growing influx of new students from abroad.

Strong onshore progression but declining flows from overseas

Policy settings are creating a split market. The number of offshore applicants for Australian higher education has fallen by about 10%. Ramirez attributes this drop to factors like a steep AU$2,500 student visa application fee and generally higher visa requirements. In contrast, the number of foreign students already in Australia who progress to a new course or institution has risen by about 9%.

This trend means students are maximizing their stay by securing subsequent visas, but it does not bring fresh international students into the country. The onshore student flow is also increasingly price-sensitive, with many choosing more affordable private providers over universities.

Visa rejection rates are high but not for all source markets

High visa refusal rates are a major factor suppressing new commencements. In the first six months of 2026, Australian immigration officials rejected about 21,000 offshore higher education student visa applications. This surge in refusals began in January 2026.

The rejections were heavily concentrated in three key source countries: India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Ramirez warned that if these high rejection rates continue, international commencements could fall by an additional 8% by the end of the year.

Recommendations for a changing recruitment landscape

With a shrinking pool of new international students, Ramirez advises Australian institutions to adopt a conservative approach to revenue forecasting. He suggests growth will now come from gaining market share, not from overall volume increases.

Recruitment strategies must become more focused and research-intensive. Ramirez cautions against indiscriminate global marketing, emphasizing that policy impacts and market dynamics vary significantly by country. He recommends deepening relationships and brand presence in a few carefully chosen emerging markets rather than casting a wide net.

"This sector has very, very strong roots," Ramirez concluded. "And those roots are actually based on people-to-people relations." He stressed that education is a people sector, not a commodity one, and future recruitment success will hinge on those established relationships.