UK Student Visa Refusals Up 30%, CAS Issuance Down 27%

Issuance of Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) documents for international students coming to the UK has fallen by 27% for the upcoming September 2026 intake. According to new data from the student compliance platform Enroly, visa refusals across all nationalities are currently 30% higher than at the same point last year.

Enroly's data, drawn from its UK university partner network, shows a market increasingly divided by student nationality and chosen subject. The company forecasts that CAS issuance for the full September intake will be approximately 28% lower year-on-year.

Sharp Declines in Key Markets

Among the UK's largest recruitment markets, Pakistan recorded the steepest decline, with CAS issuance down 57.9%. Nigeria saw a 37.8% drop, Ghana fell 36.4%, and Sri Lanka declined 36.3%. CAS issuance to Bangladeshi students fell 30.2%, while Indian student numbers were down 24.9%.

Enroly attributed the falls in Pakistan and Bangladesh to tighter Home Office compliance rules. The company said several universities had paused recruitment from these markets. For Nigeria, Enroly pointed to naira devaluation and tighter financial checks as factors leading to more offers but fewer student conversions.

Not all markets contracted. Nepalese CAS issuance rose 24.4%, with Enroly suggesting the country may be benefiting from students displaced by Australia’s tightening of its visa regime. Chinese student numbers increased by 6.6%, and CAS issuance to US students rose 18%, though Enroly said there was no clear driver for this increase.

Regional and Subject Variations

The data reveals significant regional disparities. Europe recorded 36.2% growth in CAS issuance, and Oceania saw a dramatic 101.8% increase. In contrast, West Africa recorded a 37.3% fall, South Asia declined 27%, and Southeast Asia fell 20.3%.

A major shift is also occurring in the subject profile of international recruitment. Business and management, historically the largest subject area, recorded the steepest decline, with issuance down 45.7% year-on-year.

Education and teaching was the only subject area in the data to record year-on-year growth.

Rising Visa Refusal Rates

Alongside the recruitment fall, Enroly reported a current visa refusal rate of 3.17% when calculated against students who have reached the visa-outcome stage. This compares to a rate of 1.37% when measured against total CAS issued. The company said the visa-outcome measure provides a more accurate indication of actual refusal risk, as not every student issued a CAS has yet received a decision.

Refusal rates were particularly high for some nationalities. The rate for Ghanaian students was 30.95%. Corresponding rates were 11.9% for Nigerian students, 10.15% for Pakistani students, 9.1% for Bangladeshi students, and 1.86% for Indian students.

Enroly stressed these refusal figures are a live snapshot rather than a final measure. September is typically the peak month for visa outcomes, with around 44% of outcomes for a typical intake recorded during this period, meaning rates are expected to change. The company also cautioned against directly comparing its figures with the Home Office's official 12-month rolling refusal rate, most recently reported at 4.9%.

Enroly's figures are based partly on student self-declared visa outcomes through its CAS Shield platform. The company said its data should be viewed as a live, partial complement to official statistics rather than a substitute for Home Office or HESA data.